Inflation Looks Like It's Peaking, KPMG's Swonk Says

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's approach to rate hikes, highlighting the potential for higher terminal rates and the impact of the PCE index. It covers SCP projections and rate expectations for December, noting a significant jump in rate projections. The analysis of CPI and inflation trends suggests a peak in underlying inflation, with a focus on medical and shelter costs. The recession outlook predicts a moderate recession with low unemployment rates, influenced by demographic changes. Economic factors and policy decisions, including the debt ceiling and potential stimulus, are also examined.

What is the Federal Reserve's current stance on interest rate hikes?

• They have decided to stop all rate hikes.

• They will continue to raise rates but at a slower pace.

• They will maintain the current rates indefinitely.

• They plan to decrease rates immediately.

What was the significant change in the SCP and dot plot for 2023?

• A stable rate at 400.

• A decrease from 500 to 460.

• An increase from 380 to 460.

• A decrease from 460 to 380.

What is the expected trend for inflation according to the discussion?

• Inflation will drop significantly overnight.

• Inflation will remain stable.

• Inflation is expected to rise indefinitely.

• Inflation is beginning to peak and may decelerate.

How is the unemployment rate expected to change during the projected recession?

• It will rise significantly above 10%.

• It will drop to 2%.

• It will remain below 6%.

• It will stabilize at 8%.

What is the expected impact of the aging population on the unemployment rate?

• It will increase the unemployment rate significantly.

• It will have no impact on the unemployment rate.

• It will help keep the unemployment rate low.

• It will cause the unemployment rate to fluctuate wildly.

What is a potential risk if the Democrats hold the House?

• A smooth passage of all economic policies.

• Increased risk of a debt ceiling battle.

• Immediate economic recovery.

• Unrestricted fiscal stimulus.

What is a major challenge in making policy decisions according to the discussion?

• Excessive economic growth.

• Too much fiscal space available.

• Bipartisan agreement is difficult to achieve.

• Lack of public interest.