Goldman on Federal Reserve: Another 75 Bps Hike From Here More Likely

The transcript discusses economic growth expectations, highlighting a stronger growth forecast compared to other forecasters and a lower probability of recession. It examines inflation trends and the Fed's potential actions, including rate hikes. The concept of a soft landing is explored, with risks on both sides of economic performance. Market reactions and the possibility of rate hikes are analyzed, alongside the impact of consumer credit and spending on growth. Finally, the effects of China's economic reopening on global growth and inflation are considered.

What is the expected probability of a recession according to the speaker?

• 50%

• 75%

• 25%

• 65%

What does the 'no landing' scenario imply?

• The economy falls into a deep recession

• Global growth accelerates without creating economic slack

• Inflation rates drop drastically

• Global growth slows down significantly

How does the speaker view the bond market's focus on recession risks?

• The risks are negligible

• The risks are lower than forecasters suggest

• The risks are higher than forecasters suggest

• The risks are the same as forecasters suggest

What is the speaker's view on the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike by the Fed?

• Already decided

• Quite unlikely

• Somewhat likely

• Very likely

What is a significant concern regarding US consumer credit?

• High savings rates

• Rising credit card debt and delinquencies

• Decreasing disposable income

• Stable credit quality

How is real disposable household income expected to change this year?

• Remain stable

• Rise at a strong pace

• Decrease slightly

• Decline at a fast pace

What is the expected impact of China's reopening on global inflation?

• Increase in supply chain disruptions

• Decrease in oil prices

• No impact on inflation

• Mixed effects on core inflation