Markets Have Priced In Excessive U.S. Growth

The video discusses the revised US GDP and the optimism surrounding US growth expectations post-Trump's election. Derek Holt from Scotiabank provides a measured outlook, highlighting potential economic challenges such as tightening financial conditions and rising mortgage rates. The Canadian economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with factors like retail sales and immigration playing a role. However, uncertainties remain, including the impact of US growth on Canadian exports and potential changes to NAFTA. The Bank of Canada is expected to delay interest rate hikes until mid-2018, with currency forecasts predicting fluctuations. The video concludes with an analysis of Canadian trade and employment trends.

What is Derek Holt's perspective on the US growth expectations post-Trump's election?

• He is very optimistic about rapid growth.

• He believes the market expectations are excessive.

• He thinks growth will be stagnant.

• He expects a recession.

What factors contribute to cautious optimism for Canada's near-term growth?

• High consumer debt and low savings

• Rising oil prices and tax cuts

• Child benefits, immigration targets, and infrastructure spending

• Decreasing interest rates and strong exports

When does the Bank of Canada plan to potentially hike rates according to the forecast?

• Early 2020

• Early 2017

• Mid 2018

• Late 2019

What is the expected trend for the Canadian dollar in 2017?

• It will rise sharply and continue to rise.

• It will fall significantly.

• It will remain stable.

• It will rise to around 140 and then ease back to mid 130s.

What is the expected trend for Canadian exports in the near future?

• Stable export levels

• A significant increase in exports

• A further retrenchment on the export side

• A complete halt in exports

What is the expected job growth range in Canada according to the forecast?

• 5,000 to 10,000

• 10,000 to 15,000

• 20,000 to 25,000

• 15,000 to 20,000

What is a potential challenge for the Canadian economy mentioned in the final section?

• High inflation rates

• Volatility in the export sector

• Rising unemployment rates

• Decreasing consumer spending