Brugel's Papadia Sees ECB Completing Taper in 2018

The transcript discusses economic growth in Europe and the US, highlighting the consolidation of growth and the approach towards the 2% target. It contrasts the political situations in Europe and the US, noting the rise of populism in Europe. The European Central Bank's potential tapering of QE is examined, along with the implications for Italy. The potential for a bargain between France and Germany post-elections is explored, and Italy's political and economic challenges are analyzed.

What is the current economic situation in Europe according to the transcript?

• Growth is consolidating with some risks remaining.

• Europe has achieved its 5% growth target.

• The economy is declining rapidly.

• Europe is experiencing a recession.

What is the European Central Bank expected to do in the autumn of 2017?

• Increase interest rates significantly.

• Announce the winding down of quantitative easing.

• Introduce new economic sanctions.

• Expand the quantitative easing program.

What is one of the potential outcomes of President Macron's election?

• Increased integration between France and Germany.

• A complete dissolution of the European Union.

• A decrease in France's economic flexibility.

• A significant rise in unemployment rates.

What is the likelihood of a 'Grand Bargain' between France and Germany?

• Already in place and functioning.

• Highly likely with immediate effects.

• Unlikely but would have a significant impact.

• Not discussed in the transcript.

What is the main concern regarding Italy's political situation?

• The electorate is divided, making stability difficult.

• A stable and effective government is expected.

• The possibility of Italexit is very high.

• Italy is likely to lead the EU soon.

How might Italian industries become more competitive?

• By reducing labor costs significantly.

• Through currency devaluation making exports cheaper.

• By adopting the US dollar as currency.

• By increasing tariffs on imports.

What is the expected impact of early elections in Italy?

• Immediate resolution of banking issues.

• A significant economic boom.

• A clear and stable government will emerge.

• Increased support for the five-star movement.