Morgan Stanley’s Helfstein on U.S.-China Trade, Markets, Fed Policy

The transcript discusses market complacency towards geopolitical risks, focusing on the impact of tariffs on the S&P and specific sectors like semiconductors. It examines U.S. companies' strategies to offset tariffs using tax refunds and analyzes President Trump's trade strategy in the context of upcoming elections. The role of the Federal Reserve in the trade dispute is explored, highlighting potential rate cuts and recession risks. The global central banks' efforts to normalize monetary policy and the tech war between the U.S. and China are also covered. Finally, the transcript addresses the risks and opportunities in the tech industry, considering regulatory challenges and the potential for growth.

What percentage has the S&P 500 fallen from its high due to the impact of tariffs?

• 10%

• 7%

• 12%

• 5%

How much tax refund did U.S. companies receive last year to offset the impact of tariffs?

• $100 billion

• $75 billion

• $150 billion

• $50 billion

What is President Trump's approval rating according to the last Gallup poll mentioned?

• 50%

• 40%

• 55%

• 46%

What might trigger the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut?

• A significant market rally

• A trade deal being finalized

• A prolonged trade dispute

• An increase in inflation

What is the main reason for the U.S. dollar's relative strength?

• High inflation rates in the U.S.

• Weakening of other global economies

• Increased foreign investments

• Strong economic growth in Europe

What is the theme of the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit this year?

• Stability

• Disruption

• Growth

• Innovation

What is a potential outcome of regulatory measures on big tech companies?

• Decrease in market share

• Rapid expansion into new markets

• Immediate increase in profits

• Solidification of their market position