JP Morgan: Brent Could Hit $150 in 2023

The transcript discusses the complexities of the oil market, focusing on OPEC's spare capacity, shale oil investment, and geopolitical factors affecting production. It highlights the challenges in increasing oil production, the impact of cost inflation, and the strategic responses of oil companies. The potential return of Iranian crude and its market implications are also examined. The discussion concludes with an analysis of oil price volatility and investment strategies in the context of transitioning energy markets.

What is the estimated actual spare capacity of OPEC according to the bottom-up work mentioned?

• 5,000,000 barrels

• 3,500,000 barrels

• 2,800,000 barrels

• 4,000,000 barrels

What oil price is suggested as necessary to stimulate investment in the oil sector?

• $80

• $60

• $70

• $90

What additional cost factors are considered for shale oil production?

• $5 of cash return and $15 of transition costs

• $20 of cash return and $10 of transition costs

• $15 of cash return and $5 of transition costs

• $10 of cash return and $5 of transition costs

What is the assumed probability of Iranian crude returning to the market in the near term?

• 60%

• 50%

• 40%

• 30%

How might OPEC respond to the return of Iranian crude?

• Ignore the return of Iranian crude

• Cut production entirely

• Delay production increases

• Increase production significantly

What is the estimated oil price threshold before it impacts demand significantly?

• $100

• $120

• $130

• $150

What percentage of spare capacity has historically led to significant oil price volatility?

• 15%

• 5%

• 20%

• 10%