We Are Looking at a Much Bigger Slowdown for China Next Year, Says Autonomous Research

The transcript discusses an anticipated economic slowdown for the next year, driven by a collapse in a specific credit measure. Despite being in easing mode since July, the effects have not been transmitted, particularly in China, where easing efforts have not led to expected outcomes. This is due to ongoing de-risking efforts and restrictions on the property sector. The lack of credit pickup and external challenges contribute to a negative outlook for the coming year.

What is the main reason for the anticipated economic slowdown next year?

• Increase in global demand

• Collapse of a specific credit measure

• Rise in property prices

• Improvement in earnings

How long does it usually take for the effects of credit measures to pass through to earnings?

• One quarter

• Four quarters

• Two quarters

• Three quarters

Why has China's easing mode not resulted in the expected economic transmission?

• Rapid technological advancements

• High inflation rates

• Increase in foreign investments

• De-risking efforts and property sector restrictions

What is one of the key reasons for the lack of credit pickup in China?

• High interest rates

• Government's focus on technology

• Restrictions on property sector growth

• Increase in consumer spending

What is the outlook for the Chinese economy next year based on the current situation?

• Unpredictable and volatile

• Negative with challenges

• Stable with no change

• Positive and growing