Barclays Asia Pacific's Chang on China's Growth Outlook

The video discusses the economic impact of China's COVID-19 lockdowns, highlighting the greater effect on consumption and services compared to manufacturing. It addresses economic challenges, including the fragility of the property market and regulatory crackdowns, which pose risks to China's growth targets. The video also analyzes PMI expectations, suggesting a potential rebound in industrial activity despite disruptions. Finally, it examines the impact of rising oil prices on China's economy, noting the sensitivity of GDP and inflation to these changes.

What sector is most likely to be affected by China's zero COVID policy?

• Services

• Agriculture

• Manufacturing

• Technology

What is the impact of China's zero COVID policy on its manufacturing sector?

• Severe disruptions

• Shift to remote work

• Minimal impact due to prioritization

• Complete shutdown

What is one of the structural weaknesses in China's economy mentioned in the video?

• Fragile property market

• Strong currency

• High inflation

• Robust export growth

What is the expected impact of a $10 increase in oil prices on China's GDP growth?

• 0.1 percentage point decrease

• 0.5 percentage point decrease

• 1 percentage point decrease

• No impact

How does China's energy mix contribute to its economic vulnerability?

• Predominantly natural gas

• Majority nuclear energy

• High reliance on renewable energy

• 20% oil, 10% gas, 60% coal