Macquarie's Idris Doesn't See Full Scale Erdogan Victory

Idris expresses a negative outlook on the Turkish lira, citing political and economic challenges such as a low victory margin, potential protests, and a significant current account deficit. Despite these issues, some analysts, like those at JPMorgan, see potential opportunities in the Turkish market. The discussion also touches on future political events and the Central Bank's credibility. Additionally, the geopolitical situation in Korea is addressed, focusing on the impact of North Korean missile tests on the South Korean won.

What are some of the economic challenges mentioned by Idris that are affecting the Turkish lira?

• Current account deficit and high inflation

• Current account surplus and low inflation

• Fiscal surplus and Central Bank credibility

• High inflation and fiscal surplus

What is one reason Idris suggests caution in the market regarding the Turkish lira?

• The victory margin in recent elections was high

• The Central Bank has gained credibility

• The Turkish lira is the best performer this year

• The possibility of protests due to a narrow victory margin

What potential benefit does JPMorgan see for Turkey in the emerging market space?

• The Turkish lira has no potential for short-term gains

• Turkey might be a key beneficiary due to favorable macro conditions

• The Turkish lira is the least volatile currency

• Turkey's equities are trading at a premium

What is a significant geopolitical risk mentioned in the Korean Peninsula?

• South Korea's economic downturn

• South Korea's political instability

• North Korea's successful missile launch

• North Korea's potential for further aggressive actions

How did the South Korean won react to the geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula?

• It appreciated significantly

• It remained stable

• It reacted mildly and slightly lower

• It depreciated significantly