Is a March Hike a Done Deal for the Fed?

The transcript discusses the rapid change in economic expectations, focusing on the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate moves and the influence of political events like European elections. It highlights the risks of early Fed actions, current economic trends, and the impact of Trump's policies. The discussion also covers Fed fund futures, the dollar rally, and future economic predictions, emphasizing the uncertainty and challenges faced by both the Fed and the Trump administration.

What is the main reason the Fed is considering moving early?

• To align with the European political calendar

• To respond to high inflation rates

• To counteract a strong dollar

• To support consumer spending

What was a major concern regarding Trump's address to Congress?

• Lack of specific details

• Excessive market optimism

• Overemphasis on foreign policy

• Focus on environmental issues

What potential event could cause a split between Trump and the Fed?

• A new trade agreement

• A shift in immigration laws

• A change in tax policy

• The German and French elections

What has been a significant factor in the dollar's recent performance?

• Rising oil prices

• Increased consumer spending

• The marginal cost of capital

• Trump's economic policies

What is the predicted likelihood of a stronger dollar one year from now?

• Less than 25%

• 50%

• More than 90%

• 75%