ADP Says U.S. Added 253,000 Jobs in May

The transcript discusses the market's reaction to a surprising ADP report, which showed an upside surprise of 253,000 jobs compared to an estimate of 180,000. This led to movements in treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The labor market remains strong, with discouraged workers returning, contributing to growth. The discussion also covers the impact of the yield curve on the dollar and the potential implications for future growth and inflation. The ADP report's correlation with the upcoming NFP report is debated, with experts suggesting it could indicate an upward risk to forecasts.

What was the unexpected employment number reported, and how did it compare to the estimate?

• 253,000, higher than the estimate of 180,000

• 180,000, matching the estimate

• 177,000, lower than the estimate

• 200,000, slightly above the estimate

What factor is contributing to the addition of many workers in the labor market?

• Increased automation

• Return of discouraged workers

• Higher wages

• Government incentives

What is the current unemployment rate mentioned in the discussion?

• 3.5%

• 4.4%

• 4.0%

• 5.0%

What has been the primary driver of the dollar's movement over the past 12 months?

• Inflation rates

• Stock market performance

• Yield curve changes

• Trade policies

How should economists interpret the ADP report in relation to the nonfarm payrolls?

• As a direct predictor

• As a sign of economic downturn

• With caution, as it may not directly translate

• As irrelevant data