Next Recession Will Be Based on U.S. Corporates, Says Legal & General’s Roe

The video discusses the US economic outlook, focusing on recession probabilities, market reactions, and the impact of trade. It highlights the strength of the consumer economy versus stagnant corporate profits and examines Fed rate cut expectations. The discussion also covers the role of corporate spreads and yield curve inversion in predicting recessions, noting that traditional indicators may not apply due to current economic conditions.

What historical probability percentage has been associated with a recession in the US since 1967?

• 10%

• 20%

• 30%

• 40%

How might an escalation in trade affect the likelihood of a US recession?

• It would decrease the likelihood of a recession.

• It would have no impact on the likelihood of a recession.

• It would only affect the global economy, not the US.

• It would definitely lead to a recession.

What is the expected change in the second reading of the US GDP data for the second quarter?

• Drop to 2.0%

• Increase to 3.0%

• Increase to 2.5%

• Remain at 2.1%

What is the main concern regarding the corporate sector in the context of low interest rates?

• Increased government intervention

• Lack of profit growth

• High corporate profits

• Rising inflation

Why might traditional recession indicators like corporate spreads not be reliable currently?

• Due to stable interest rates

• Due to high inflation rates

• Because of the constant drive for yield

• Because of increased government spending