Jan Hatzius: I'm Not Very Worried About a Recession

The transcript discusses the economic outlook, focusing on full employment, rate hike forecasts, and market expectations. It evaluates the risks of overshooting full employment and the challenges of achieving a soft landing. The conversation also covers the likelihood of rate hikes, market pricing, and the potential for a recession. It contrasts corporate optimism with investor caution, highlighting differing views on economic growth and Fed policy.

What is a potential risk of overshooting full employment?

• Decreased job creation

• Increased inflation

• Higher unemployment rates

• Economic stability

Why was the rate hike forecast downgraded to two this year?

• Stronger economic data

• Weaker employment reports

• Increased market confidence

• Higher inflation rates

What is a key factor that makes predicting rate hikes challenging?

• High market pricing hurdles

• Stable economic indicators

• Consistent employment growth

• Low inflation rates

Which indicator is not considered a strong predictor of recessions?

• Unemployment rate

• High yield spreads

• Yield curve

• Credit growth

How do corporate CEOs generally feel about economic growth?

• Pessimistic

• Neutral

• Constructive

• Cautious