Goldman Sees 35% U.S. Recession Risk in Next Two Years

Goldman Sachs has increased its prediction of a recession in the US to 35% over the next two years. This prediction is based on historical trends, particularly the significant decline in the gap between job openings and available workers. The video discusses the historical context of recessions, comparing past cycles to recent ones, and considers the impact of quantitative easing and tightening. It also examines the effects of recent tightening cycles on the market, questioning which historical precedent to follow.

What percentage chance of a recession did Goldman Sachs predict for the next two years?

• 25%

• 35%

• 45%

• 55%

How many tightening cycles since World War II have led to a recession within two years?

• 14

• 11

• 8

• 5

What economic factors are not considered in the historical recession comparisons?

• Interest rates

• Quantitative easing and tightening

• Unemployment rates

• Inflation rates

During which years did the most recent tightening cycle occur?

• 2012-2015

• 2008-2011

• 2016-2019

• 2010-2013

What is the main question posed about predicting future economic trends?

• Which economic model to use?

• Which historical precedent to follow?

• Which market to invest in?

• Which currency to focus on?