RBA May Cut Rates in August and November, AMP Capital's Oliver Says

The transcript discusses the potential for wage growth in Australia, comparing its labor market capacity to that of the US. It highlights the challenges of underemployment and the slow pace of economic growth. The conversation shifts to short-term economic risks, including potential downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on unemployment. The Reserve Bank's stance on rate cuts is explored, with expectations of two rate cuts later in the year, contingent on economic indicators and political outcomes.

What is the main reason for the slower wage growth in Australia compared to the US?

• Higher GDP growth in the US

• Higher unemployment rate in Australia

• Lower inflation in the US

• Stronger household consumption in Australia

What is the immediate risk to the Australian economy in the short term?

• Rapid economic growth

• Decrease in unemployment

• Increase in household consumption

• Downward pressure on wages

What is the market's expectation regarding rate cuts by the end of the year?

• Three rate cuts expected

• Two rate cuts expected

• One rate cut expected

• No rate cuts expected

What factors are influencing the Reserve Bank's decision on rate cuts?

• Current inflation rates

• April budget and election outcomes

• Global economic trends

• Household consumption levels

Historically, how common is it to have just one rate cut?

• Rare

• Somewhat common

• Never happens

• Very common