Royal London's Greetham Sees a Risk-On Tone for Markets in 1H

The video discusses the indirect impact of the government shutdown on Federal Reserve policy, highlighting the resilience of the US consumer despite recession fears. It notes strong retail sales, wage growth, and a tight labor market, with China adding economic stimulus. The speaker predicts a risk-on tone for the first half of the year, with the Fed likely to hike rates later. The recession is deemed a myth for the current year, but concerns remain for the next year.

What is the indirect effect of the shutdown on the Federal Reserve's policy?

• It leads to immediate interest rate cuts.

• It forces the Fed to increase interest rates immediately.

• It causes the Fed to hold its policy due to economic softness.

• It results in increased government spending.

Which economic indicator is mentioned as showing strength despite recession concerns?

• Unemployment rate

• Stock market

• Retail sales numbers

• Housing market

How is China contributing to the global economic outlook?

• By reducing exports

• By increasing tariffs

• By adding economic stimulus

• By cutting wages

What is the expected action of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates this year?

• They will keep rates unchanged.

• They will cut rates significantly.

• They will hike rates after an economic recovery.

• They will eliminate rates altogether.

What is the speaker's view on the recession for this year?

• It will cause a stock market crash.

• It is a significant threat.

• It is a myth.

• It will lead to a financial crisis.