If May Suffers a Big Brexit Defeat It's Back to Square One: UBS

The transcript discusses the market's perception of Brexit outcomes, particularly focusing on the probability and impact of a no deal Brexit. It highlights that while a no deal Brexit is not the most likely outcome, it remains a legal default and could significantly affect the pound. The discussion also covers political dynamics and how they influence market expectations, with a focus on the potential outcomes of upcoming votes and their implications for the pound and the broader market.

What is the market's general view on the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit?

• The market is indifferent to the outcome of Brexit.

• The market believes a no-deal Brexit is inevitable.

• The market is pessimistic and expects a no-deal Brexit.

• The market is optimistic and believes a no-deal Brexit is unlikely.

What is the estimated impact on the pound if a Brexit deal is reached?

• The pound would remain stable against the euro.

• The pound would become stronger than the euro.

• The pound would rise significantly against the euro.

• The pound would decline to around 85 or slightly lower against the euro.

What is the probability of a no-deal Brexit according to the discussion?

• Very high

• Zero percent

• Fifty percent

• Non-zero but not particularly high

What is the potential consequence for the pound if a no-deal Brexit occurs?

• The pound would become stronger than the euro.

• The pound would have no change against the euro.

• The pound would reach parity with the euro.

• The pound would strengthen against the euro.

What is the market's hope as the Brexit deadline approaches?

• That the deadline is extended indefinitely.

• That the UK remains in the EU.

• That more people support Theresa May's deal.

• That a no-deal Brexit becomes more likely.