Seeds Have Been Sown for a US Credit Crunch: Poole

The video discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting, where a 0.25% rate hike is expected. The Fed is likely to express caution due to banking challenges, maintaining a bias towards hiking while monitoring data. Market reactions include a collapse in the two-year yield, with rate cuts being priced in. The risk of a Minsky moment is considered, with potential long-term economic impacts. Over the next 6-12 months, a recession is likely, following a credit crunch pathway, leading to tighter credit conditions and higher unemployment.

What is the expected action of the FOMC regarding interest rates?

• A 0.5% rate hike

• A 0.25% rate hike

• No change in rates

• A rate cut

What is a potential risk mentioned that could affect the real economy?

• A housing market crash

• A technology bubble

• A Minsky moment

• A stock market boom

What is the expected impact on credit conditions according to the discussion?

• Credit conditions will loosen

• Credit conditions will remain stable

• Credit conditions will improve

• Credit conditions will tighten

What economic indicator is expected to rise due to a credit crunch?

• Consumer spending

• Unemployment

• Inflation

• GDP growth

What is the overall risk scenario discussed in the final section?

• An unchanged economic scenario

• A negative economic scenario

• A balanced economic scenario

• A positive economic outlook