UBP's Calder: Neutral Global Equities, but Favor US

The video discusses recent market trends, highlighting better-than-expected declines in consumer and producer prices, leading to rallies in stocks and bonds. The speaker explains their neutral stance on global equities, with a preference for US stocks over Japan and emerging markets. The focus shifts to US banks, emphasizing the importance of upcoming earnings reports and the impact of the Fed's rate hike cycle. The potential for financials to outperform post-rate hike is explored, with attention to commercial real estate and regional banks. The speaker notes the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's final rate hike and its implications for financials.

What recent market trend has contributed to the rally in both stock and bond markets?

• Increase in consumer prices

• Decline in consumer and producer prices

• Stability in global oil prices

• Rise in unemployment rates

Why is the US market currently favored over Japan and emerging markets?

• End of the rate hike cycle

• Better performance of Chinese stocks

• Higher interest rates in the US

• Stronger currency in Japan

What is a significant concern for regional banks according to the transcript?

• Decline in consumer spending

• Increased competition from global banks

• Commercial real estate loans

• High inflation rates

What is the expected impact on financials after the last rate hike?

• Decline in loan quality

• Stability in market share

• Outperformance due to alleviation of rate fears

• Underperformance due to high rates

What does the Fed's recent guidance suggest about future rate changes?

• A decrease in rates by 25 basis points

• No change in rates

• An increase of potentially 50 basis points

• A decrease in rates by 100 basis points