Expect a `Lot More' BOE Rate Hikes If Brexit Deal Passes, Merian Says

The video discusses the sensitivity of the pound to Brexit news, the likelihood of Brexit passing in Parliament, and the market's perception of risks. It also covers Theresa May's political position and potential investment strategies amid Brexit uncertainties, including long positions on sterling and short positions on gilts.

What is the market's current perception of Theresa May's withdrawal agreement?

• It is perceived as the best possible outcome.

• It is considered better than a hard Brexit scenario.

• It is viewed negatively against the Brexiteers' vision of a global Britain.

• It is seen as favorable compared to full EU membership.

What is the likelihood of a hard Brexit according to the transcript?

• It is the most likely outcome.

• There is no parliamentary majority for a hard Brexit.

• It is seen as a vote-winning strategy.

• There is a strong parliamentary majority for it.

What is the potential impact of a second referendum according to the discussion?

• It is expected to happen soon.

• It is seen as a way to strengthen Theresa May's position.

• It is considered a last resort by many.

• It is the preferred option for most MPs.

Why might investors choose to short gilts in the current Brexit scenario?

• Because of expected rate hikes with a withdrawal agreement.

• Because gilts are considered a safe haven.

• Due to a lack of confidence in UK equities.

• Due to a strong belief in a hard Brexit.

What is the expected economic impact of a withdrawal agreement according to the transcript?

• A transitory inflation effect from a weaker sterling.

• A rapid decline in economic forecasts.

• An increase in investment and confidence.

• A decrease in business and consumer confidence.