What's Putting the Market at Risk?

The video discusses the unusual behavior of the SNP post-Brexit, highlighting its decoupling from risky assets and alignment with safe havens. It examines structural inflows into US equities driven by geopolitical risks, Fed expectations, and systematic strategies. The video warns of market complacency and underestimated risks, particularly in relation to the VIX. It also explores the impact of economic indicators like the dollar trend, oil prices, and interest rates on earnings. Finally, it addresses the challenges of measuring productivity and its implications for future market projections.

What unusual behavior did the S&P 500 exhibit post-Brexit?

• It showed no change in behavior.

• It decoupled from risky assets and aligned with safe-haven assets.

• It decoupled from safe-haven assets.

• It aligned with risky assets.

What are some sources of structural inflows into US equities?

• Only systematic strategies

• Bond investors, foreign investors, and systematic strategies

• Only foreign investors

• Domestic retail investors

What factors could support a turnaround in earnings?

• Rising interest rates and a strong dollar

• Increasing geopolitical risks

• A stabilizing dollar, stable oil prices, and low interest rates

• Falling oil prices and high volatility

Why is measuring productivity considered challenging?

• Because it is irrelevant to future earnings

• Because it is only applicable to the tech sector

• Due to disputes over current productivity numbers and potential underestimation

• Because it is always increasing

How does current productivity compare to previous cycles?

• It is not measurable

• It is the same as in previous cycles

• It is higher than in previous cycles

• It is lower than in previous cycles