Is March Fed Rate Hike Locked, Live and 100 Percent?

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike in March, with market expectations shifting from 35% to 90% probability. It examines the rally in the dollar, influenced by higher yields and market euphoria, and questions the impact of Trump's speech. The discussion also covers Mexico's economic situation, with the peso undervalued due to perceived risks from US trade policies. The Mexican Central Bank's consideration of a swap line with the Federal Reserve is mentioned, though denied by Governor Augustin Karstens.

What was the initial market probability of a rate hike at the start of the week?

• 35%

• 90%

• 75%

• 50%

What factor is primarily driving the recent rally in the US dollar?

• Increased consumer spending

• Trade agreements

• Lower unemployment rates

• Higher yields

What is the debate regarding the Fed's terminal rate?

• Whether it could be increased to around 2%

• If it should be eliminated

• If it should remain at 2%

• Whether it should be reduced to 1%

What was the Mexican Central Bank considering to ensure liquidity in peso trading?

• Implementing capital controls

• Requesting a swap line with the Federal Reserve

• Devaluing the peso

• Increasing interest rates

What is the market's perception of the Mexican peso in relation to US policies?

• Overvalued due to strong US trade policies

• Stable with no significant risks

• Undervalued due to risks related to Trump policies

• Overvalued due to high inflation