Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

The video discusses Archie Cochrane's innovative medical trial in a German prison camp, highlighting the discovery of marmite as a cure for a mysterious illness. It introduces the concept of the God complex, where individuals believe they are infallibly right, and emphasizes the importance of trial and error in solving complex problems. The narrative extends to educational and political systems, advocating for humility and experimentation. Cochrane's legacy is explored, illustrating the value of acknowledging fallibility and making 'good mistakes'.

What was the main discovery Archie Cochrane made in the prison camp?

• Vitamin C cured the illness.

• Marmite was the cure for the illness.

• The illness was caused by an infection.

• The illness was due to malnutrition.

What is the God complex as described in the talk?

• An understanding of complex data.

• A belief in one's infallibility despite complex problems.

• A tendency to rely on trial and error.

• A method of conducting experiments.

What is a limitation of typical data presentations like Hans Rosling's graphs?

• They are difficult to understand.

• They leave out important complexities.

• They focus on irrelevant information.

• They include too much data.

How did Unilever solve the problem of designing a detergent nozzle?

• By hiring a mathematician to calculate the design.

• By using trial and error to find the best design.

• By using a computer simulation.

• By copying a design from another company.

What does the speaker suggest about the U.S. economy's success?

• It is due to having smart leaders.

• It results from trial and error.

• It is due to technological advancements.

• It is because of a stable market.

What change does the speaker propose for schools?

• Eliminate all forms of testing.

• Focus on memorization of facts.

• Encourage trial and error in problem-solving.

• Teach only subjects with clear answers.

What was the outcome of Archie Cochrane's heart attack recovery trial?

• The trial was stopped due to ethical concerns.

• The trial was inconclusive.

• Patients should recover at home.

• Patients should recover in hospitals.

What does the speaker say about making mistakes?

• Making mistakes is a sign of failure.

• Mistakes should be avoided at all costs.

• Mistakes are irrelevant in problem-solving.

• Good mistakes can lead to progress.

What is the speaker's view on politicians and trial and error?

• Politicians should rely on expert opinions.

• Politicians should avoid making mistakes.

• Politicians should embrace trial and error.

• Politicians should have all the answers.

What lesson does the speaker draw from the story of Yutaka Taniyama?

• Mistakes should be avoided in mathematics.

• Mathematical conjectures are often incorrect.

• Persistence is more important than results.

• Making mistakes in a good direction is valuable.