What Theresa May's Survival of Confidence Vote Could Mean for the Pound

The transcript discusses the market's reaction to political events, particularly the confidence vote for May and its implications for Brexit. It explores the potential impacts of a no deal Brexit on the pound, highlighting economic and political uncertainties. The discussion also covers market volatility and how businesses are preparing for potential swings, with a focus on the high costs of managing exposure to sterling.

What are the two main questions the market is considering after the confidence vote for May?

• The potential for a new election and the effect on interest rates

• The likelihood of a new trade deal and the impact on inflation

• The chances of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister and the possibility of a hard Brexit

• The impact on the housing market and the future of the NHS

What could be a severe consequence for the pound in the event of a hard Brexit?

• The pound could rise above 150

• The pound could stabilize at 130

• The pound could remain unchanged

• The pound could fall well below 120

What percentage chance of a hard Brexit have markets begun to price in?

• 30% to 40%

• 70% to 80%

• 10% to 20%

• 50% to 60%

How has implied volatility for the pound changed since 2017?

• It has reached highs not seen since 2017

• It has remained the same

• It has decreased significantly

• It has slightly increased

How are businesses reacting to the current market conditions compared to the first Brexit vote?

• They are more concerned and willing to pay more for insurance

• They are indifferent and not changing their strategies

• They are less concerned and spending less on insurance

• They are optimistic and investing more in the UK