Deutsche Bank's Huynh Doesn't Expect U.S. Recession in 2019

The video discusses the implications of yield curve inversions as indicators of potential recessions, focusing on the 10 to 2-year spread. It predicts no inversion or recession in 2019, with interest rates expected to peak in the first half of the year. The global economic outlook is influenced by US-China trade talks, with recent data showing weaknesses in Chinese retail sales but optimism for a trade deal.

What is considered one of the best recessionary leading indicators according to the video?

• 5 to 25 year yield curve inversion

• 10 to 2 year yield curve inversion

• Stock market trends

• Interest rate hikes

What is the projected interest rate by the end of 2019?

• 4.0%

• 3.5%

• 3.1%

• 2.5%

In which half of 2019 is slower economic growth expected to kick in?

• First half

• Second half

• Throughout the year

• No slowdown expected

What is the main factor affecting the economic outlook for the next year as discussed in the video?

• Trade talks

• Interest rate changes

• Inflation rates

• Unemployment rates

What positive signs have been observed in the US-China trade talks?

• Complete breakdown of talks

• More promising talks

• No change in the situation

• Increased tariffs