U.S. to See a More Dramatic Slowdown in 2020, says Daiwa Capital’s Kitney

The video discusses the potential for a US recession, focusing on short-term economic data and the impact of tax cuts. It predicts a slowdown in 2020 due to the fading effects of tax cuts and potential macroeconomic shocks. The discussion also covers the impact of US tariffs on Chinese imports, suggesting that while tariffs may increase inflation in the short term, they could reduce final demand, affecting the bond market.

What is one of the main reasons for the expected gradual decline in US growth in 2019?

• Decrease in government spending

• Increase in consumer spending

• Inventory buildup adjustments

• Rise in employment rates

What is a key factor that could lead to a more dramatic slowdown in 2020?

• Decrease in oil prices

• Displacement effect of tax cuts

• Rise in technological advancements

• Increase in global trade

What is necessary for macroeconomic shocks to have a greater impact?

• Stable government policies

• Unforeseen events

• Predictable economic trends

• Consistent consumer behavior

How might US tariffs on Chinese imports affect inflation in the short run?

• Decrease inflation by 20 basis points

• Increase inflation by 20 basis points

• Have no effect on inflation

• Decrease inflation by 10 basis points

What is the bond market's reaction to the recent news about tariffs?

• The bond market collapsed

• The bond market remained unchanged

• The bond market strengthened

• The bond market weakened