Morgan Stanley’s Sheets Is Pessimistic on Trade Outlook

The video discusses the likelihood of a US recession, with Morgan Stanley's cautious outlook and a 20% probability of recession in the next 12 months. It also covers the potential for an earnings recession, noting negative growth in S&P 500 earnings and the possibility of further declines. The impact of dollar strength is examined, highlighting trade uncertainty and over-stimulus as key factors affecting economic weakness, rather than the dollar itself.

What is the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months according to Morgan Stanley?

• 40%

• 10%

• 20%

• 30%

Which type of recession is considered more likely according to the discussion?

• Economic recession

• Earnings recession

• Global recession

• Trade recession

What was the year-over-year growth for S&P earnings in the first quarter?

• Positive

• Negative

• Unchanged

• Zero

What is one of the main reasons cited for economic weakness, aside from the dollar?

• High inflation

• Decreasing consumer spending

• Trade uncertainty

• Rising interest rates

What is the perceived impact of a strong dollar on the global economy?

• It strengthens global currencies

• It boosts global trade

• It has no impact

• It causes a global recession