Will Not Start a U.S. Earnings Recession in 1Q, Says Mainstay Capital’s Kudla

The video discusses the stock market's resistance at the 2800 level and the need for a meaningful close above it to continue the advance. It highlights the global profit outlook, noting that analysts have been curbing downgrades, though the outlook remains grim. Concerns about a US earnings recession are addressed, with a consensus estimate of a 3% earnings contraction for the first quarter. However, recent positive economic data, such as durable goods and retail sales, suggest that actual earnings may outperform estimates, potentially avoiding a recession.

What is the significance of closing above 2800 in the market?

What does the current earnings forecast suggest about the US market?

What is the consensus estimate for US earnings growth in the first quarter?

How have recent economic data points affected earnings estimates?

What indicators suggest that the US may not enter an earnings recession in the first quarter?