Will Not Start a U.S. Earnings Recession in 1Q, Says Mainstay Capital’s Kudla

The video discusses the stock market's resistance at the 2800 level and the need for a meaningful close above it to continue the advance. It highlights the global profit outlook, noting that analysts have been curbing downgrades, though the outlook remains grim. Concerns about a US earnings recession are addressed, with a consensus estimate of a 3% earnings contraction for the first quarter. However, recent positive economic data, such as durable goods and retail sales, suggest that actual earnings may outperform estimates, potentially avoiding a recession.

What is the significance of closing above the 2800 level in the stock market?

• It means the market is overvalued.

• It indicates a market downturn.

• It suggests a potential market advance.

• It shows a stable market.

What is the current consensus estimate for US earnings growth in the first quarter?

• 3% negative growth

• 5% negative growth

• 3% positive growth

• 5% positive growth

How do actual earnings typically compare to earnings forecasts?

• They are unpredictable.

• They match the forecasts.

• They are often higher.

• They are usually lower.

Which recent economic data point showed a significant improvement?

• Interest rates

• Inflation rate

• Durable goods orders

• Unemployment rate

What is the expected outcome for US earnings in the first quarter?

• A significant decline

• A slight positive number

• A major increase

• A stable outcome