Recession Risk Is Pretty Low, Says JPMorgan Asset Management’s Schowitz

The video discusses various factors influencing markets, including EU Brexit talks, ECB and Fed minutes, and IMF forecasts. It highlights the importance of US earnings season over macro data. The economic outlook is described as tricky, with central banks easing and recession risks being overestimated. Inflation data and its impact on Fed policy are examined, with a potential rate hike expected next year. US Treasury yields are projected to drift higher, with recession probabilities affecting current yield levels.

What factors are likely to move markets the most according to the text?

How does the speaker perceive the IMF's forecast updates?

What is the speaker's outlook on US earnings season?

What does the speaker suggest about the current economic environment?

What inflation level does the speaker believe would change the Fed's approach?