Brexit Process Holds 'Plenty of Twists and Turns' for Pound, CIBC Says

The transcript discusses the market's response to a potential hard Brexit, highlighting that the market has not fully priced in this risk. It explores the complexities of parliamentary actions, such as a no-confidence vote and the Queen's speech, which could influence Brexit outcomes. The discussion also covers market uncertainty, the fluid nature of base case scenarios, and potential resolutions that could impact sterling's value. The overall sentiment is that while there are risks, there is also potential for resolution and improvement in sterling sentiment.

What is the market's current position regarding the pricing of a hard Brexit?

• Irrelevant to the market

• Fully priced in

• Not yet fully priced in

• Overpriced

What could potentially delay a no-confidence vote in the UK Parliament?

• The fixed term Parliament act

• The Queen's speech

• A decision by the Prime Minister

• A public referendum

What is the base case scenario for Brexit according to the discussion?

• An extension of the deadline

• A second referendum

• A negotiated resolution

• A no-deal Brexit

How might the Queen's speech influence the Brexit process?

• By setting a new Brexit date

• By announcing a new referendum

• By dissolving Parliament

• By including a withdrawal bill

What is the expected impact on sterling sentiment after a negotiated settlement?

• It will become highly volatile

• It will improve from a low base

• It will remain unchanged

• It will worsen significantly