Probability of a ‘No-Deal’ Brexit Very Low, Says Eastspring’s Graham

The transcript discusses the current state of Brexit negotiations, highlighting the low probability of a no-deal Brexit and the resilience of the British pound. It examines the potential market effects of Brexit, including the impact on global risk premiums and the strength of the US dollar. The discussion also covers the factors influencing currency strength, such as monetary policy and growth rates, with a focus on the US and G10 economies.

What is the current likelihood of a no-deal Brexit according to the transcript?

• Uncertain

• Very low

• Moderate

• Very high

What has been the trend of the British pound in response to Brexit developments?

• It has been declining steadily.

• It has shown resilience and increased.

• It has been extremely volatile without any clear trend.

• It has remained stable.

What could cause volatility in the British pound according to the transcript?

• Changes in the EU leadership

• Amendments like a referendum or general election

• A sudden increase in UK exports

• A new trade deal with the US

How might a stronger British pound affect global markets?

• It would lead to a stronger euro.

• It would have no effect on global markets.

• It could increase the global risk premium.

• It could decrease the global risk premium.

What are the main factors supporting the strength of the US dollar?

• Higher growth rates and favorable monetary policy in the US

• Increased exports from the US

• A weaker euro

• Rising oil prices