Oxford Economics: Inflation Not Spiraling Out of Control

The video discusses the expected economic growth and challenges, highlighting the impact of the coronavirus on consumption and household spending. It analyzes the manufacturing sector's strength and trade expectations, considering global economic conditions and fiscal stimulus. The video also covers policy adjustments and concerns about uneven recovery, especially in emerging markets. Inflation trends and monetary policy in Asia are examined, with a focus on oil and food prices. Finally, the impact of the US dollar and economic outlook is discussed, considering the US economy's rebound and bond yields.

What was a significant factor that caused household consumption to drop last year?

• Increase in oil prices

• Rise in employment rates

• Decrease in export demand

• Coronavirus outbreak

What is expected to drive growth in the manufacturing sector this year?

• Decrease in global demand

• Reduction in fiscal stimulus

• Strong export figures

• Weakening of the US dollar

How are policymakers expected to handle fiscal policy this year compared to last year?

• Reduce fiscal stimulus

• Increase infrastructure spending

• Maintain the same level of stimulus

• Eliminate all fiscal measures

Which countries are likely to struggle to return to pre-COVID levels due to their reliance on tourism?

• China and India

• Thailand and Philippines

• Japan and South Korea

• Australia and New Zealand

What is a key factor that could help contain inflation in Asia?

• Strong global trade

• Increase in oil prices

• Large output gaps

• High demand in the labor market

What is the expected trend for inflation in Asia for the year?

• Continuous rise throughout the year

• Peak in Q2 and then moderate

• Decrease significantly by Q4

• Remain stable with no change

What is the anticipated stance of monetary policy in Asia despite inflationary pressures?

• Tightening of policy rates

• Maintaining accommodative stance

• Complete withdrawal of stimulus

• Significant policy rate cuts