TED: A prediction for the future of Iran | Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

The video discusses the use of science, particularly game theory, to predict complex negotiations and political scenarios, focusing on Iran's nuclear program. It highlights the importance of understanding influence and decision-making dynamics, and the role of computers in processing complex information. The speaker validates the predictive model with CIA data, emphasizing that while not everything is predictable, many complex issues can be foreseen and engineered for better outcomes.

Why does the speaker emphasize the use of science in making predictions?

• Because it allows for reproducibility.

• Because it is based on guesswork.

• Because it is less reliable than wisdom.

• Because it is a form of magic.

What is the primary assumption of game theory according to the speaker?

• People look out for their own interests.

• People are influenced by luck.

• People act randomly.

• People are always irrational.

According to the speaker, who are considered exceptions to rational behavior?

• Scientists and mathematicians.

• Teenagers and adults.

• Two-year-olds and schizophrenics.

• Politicians and businessmen.

What challenge does the speaker highlight about human cognition in decision-making?

• Humans do not need breaks like computers.

• Humans are better than computers at calculations.

• Humans struggle with processing complex interactions.

• Humans can easily process millions of interactions.

How does the speaker suggest we can predict behavior?

• By knowing the history of decision-makers.

• By ignoring their stated interests.

• By guessing their future actions.

• By understanding their strategic positions and influence.

What is the predicted outcome for Iran's nuclear program according to the speaker?

• Iran will abandon its nuclear program.

• Iran will build a nuclear bomb.

• Iran will produce weapons-grade fuel but not a bomb.

• Iran will focus solely on civilian nuclear energy.

Who are identified as growing in power within Iran?

• The youth population.

• The international community.

• The moneyed interests and quietist mullahs.

• The military leaders.

What does the speaker suggest about the predictability of complex negotiations?

• They can be predicted using the right technology.

• They are influenced by random events.

• They are completely unpredictable.

• They depend solely on historical data.

What is the speaker's view on the phrase 'that's impossible'?

• It is a motivational phrase.

• It is a definitive statement.

• It reflects a lack of knowledge on how to do it.

• It means something cannot be done.

What is the ultimate goal of using predictive analysis according to the speaker?

• To avoid making decisions.

• To predict random events.

• To engineer outcomes and change the world.

• To make money in the stock market.