U.S. 10-Year Yield Hasn’t Seen Cycle High: Morgan Stanley’s Sheets

The transcript discusses the current state and future expectations of the 10-year yield, suggesting it has not yet reached its cycle high. Morgan Stanley forecasts a rise to 1.8% by year-end, with catalysts like labor market data and Fed tapering expected to influence this. Technical factors and market reactions are also considered, with potential for a sideways market move over the summer due to competing forces such as seasonality and COVID uncertainty.

What is Morgan Stanley's forecast for the 10-year yield by the end of the year?

• 1.8%

• 2.5%

• 2.0%

• 1.5%

Which of the following is NOT mentioned as a potential catalyst for the 10-year yield increase?

• Labor market data

• Federal Reserve's tapering discussions

• Inflation rates

• School sessions in the US

What unexpected market movement is discussed in the second section?

• Increase in stock prices

• Fall in 10-year yields

• Decrease in unemployment rates

• Rise in commodity prices

What is the market's expected movement over the summer according to the second section?

• Sharp increase

• Sharp decrease

• Sideways movement

• Volatile swings

Despite COVID uncertainties, what is still positive for bonds?

• Interest rates

• Economic growth

• Carry

• Inflation