StanChart's Liu on China's Macro Economy

The video discusses the impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve on China's monetary policy, highlighting the limited room for rate cuts by the PBOC and the potential for balance sheet expansion. It examines the bond market, noting the wide interest rate differential between China and the U.S., and anticipates economic recovery and potential capital inflows. The video also covers China's fiscal policy, emphasizing the expansionary stance and budget deficit. Finally, it provides a forecast for the CNY, suggesting limited depreciation against the dollar despite capital outflows.

What is the primary tool the PBOC is using to support credit growth?

• Balance sheet expansion

• Increasing reserve requirements

• Currency devaluation

• Rate cuts

What is the current trend in China's bond market regarding capital flows?

• Potential for inflows by year-end

• Consistent outflows

• Consistent inflows

• No significant changes

What is the main reason for the wide interest rate differential between China and the U.S.?

• China's monetary policy

• U.S. monetary policy

• China's economic slowdown

• U.S. economic growth

How does China's current fiscal policy compare to previous years?

• More expansionary

• More conservative

• Unchanged

• Less expansionary

What is the projected budget deficit for China as a percentage of GDP?

• 5.5%

• 8.0%

• 6.9%

• 7.5%

What is the forecasted value of the CNY against the dollar by the end of the year?

• 6.60

• 6.70

• 6.80

• 7.00

What is the main factor contributing to the potential further depreciation of the CNY?

• Capital inflows

• Trade surplus

• Interest rate hikes

• Capital outflows