US Recession to Be Short, Shallow, If at All: Ed Yardeni

The video discusses the potential for an upcoming recession, noting its high anticipation and possible short duration. It examines the impact of $5 gas prices on consumer spending, particularly affecting lower-income households. The discussion extends to how these economic factors influence corporate earnings and inflation trends. The video concludes with an analysis of central banks' strategies to manage inflation without triggering a severe recession, highlighting the tightening of financial markets and credit conditions.

What is the subjective probability of a recession occurring in the next 18 months according to the speaker?

• 75%

• 60%

• 45%

• 30%

How much has the average household spending increased from a year ago, according to the speaker?

• $5,000 per month

• $2,800 per month

• $3,500 per month

• $5,000 per year

What is one of the main reasons for the decline in consumer sentiment?

• Increased consumer savings

• Decreasing housing prices

• Rising gasoline and grocery prices

• High unemployment rates

What is the expected impact of retailers having excess inventory?

• Decrease in consumer prices

• No impact on consumer prices

• Increase in consumer prices

• Stagnation of consumer prices

What historical strategy is mentioned as a way to bring down inflation?

• Reducing interest rates

• Implementing tax cuts

• Increasing government spending

• Causing a recession