'A New Bull Market Has Begun,' Says Leuthold's Paulsen

The transcript discusses the potential for a new bull market, highlighting that new bull markets typically see significant growth in their first year. It suggests that if a recession is avoided or is modest, the stock market could enter a new bull phase. The discussion includes the role of market multiples, with historical data showing a rise in PE multiples during the first year of bull markets. The speaker contrasts their optimistic view with the generally pessimistic forecasts of strategists, suggesting that if the bear market is over, returns could be substantial.

What is the speaker's view on the current market situation?

• The market is unpredictable.

• The market is stagnant.

• A new bull market is starting.

• The bear market is still ongoing.

According to the speaker, what typically happens in the first year of a new bull market?

• Markets increase by 25-35%.

• Markets remain flat.

• Markets increase by 5-10%.

• Markets decline by 10-15%.

What does the speaker suggest could lead to a new bull market?

• A severe recession.

• A decrease in market multiples.

• A significant drop in earnings.

• Avoiding a recession or having a modest one.

What happens to earnings and multiples in the first year of a bull market, according to the speaker?

• Earnings and multiples both rise significantly.

• Both earnings and multiples decrease.

• Earnings remain flat or decrease, but multiples increase.

• Earnings rise significantly, and multiples decrease.

What historical trend does the speaker mention regarding PE multiples in the first year of a bull market?

• PE multiples decrease by 20%.

• PE multiples rise by 35%.

• PE multiples rise by 10%.

• PE multiples remain unchanged.