TED: How to outthink your competition -- with a lesson from sports | Rasmus Ankersen

The video explores the rise and fall of Nokia, using the Nokia 3310 as a symbol of both success and failure. It then shifts to Newcastle United's unexpected performance drop, highlighting outcome bias. Matthew Benham's data-driven approach to football management is introduced, emphasizing the randomness in football and the misleading nature of league tables. The video concludes by discussing how successful organizations can be blinded by outcome bias, suggesting they adopt a gambler's mindset to differentiate between luck and skill.

What was the Nokia 3310 famously known for?

• Being the first smartphone

• Its high-resolution camera

• Being indestructible

• Having a touch screen

What psychological challenge is often overlooked after achieving success?

• Complacency

• Overconfidence

• Outcome bias

• Lack of innovation

What unexpected achievement did Newcastle United accomplish in 2012?

• Finishing fifth in the Premier League

• Winning the FA Cup

• Winning the Premier League

• Avoiding relegation

What was the main reason for Newcastle United's decline after their successful season?

• Outcome bias and unsustainable performance

• Change in management

• Financial difficulties

• Injuries to key players

Who is Matthew Benham and what is his approach to football management?

• A former football player using traditional coaching methods

• A gambler using data and analytics

• A sports journalist focusing on player interviews

• A football club owner investing in star players

What is a key concept that gamblers understand about football?

• The best team always wins

• Randomness plays a significant role in outcomes

• Football is a high-scoring game

• The league table always tells the truth

Why is football considered more random than basketball?

• It has more players on the field

• It is a low-scoring sport

• It uses a round ball

• It has longer game durations

What is outcome bias?

• The idea that success is always sustainable

• The assumption that luck plays no role in success

• The tendency to blame others for failures

• The belief that good outcomes are due to good decisions

How should successful organizations approach their achievements?

• By assuming continued success

• By maintaining the status quo

• By questioning the reasons behind their success

• By focusing solely on financial growth

What lesson can organizations learn from gamblers?

• To avoid taking risks

• To rely on luck for success

• To treat success with skepticism

• To invest heavily in marketing