Valuations as a Recession Indicators

Valuations as a Recession Indicators

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Business

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The video discusses the concept of 'elves' in market analysis, originally introduced by Louis Rukeyser. The elves' index reflects market sentiment, with a focus on the Dow, NASDAQ, Amex, and Russell. The updated elves are real analysts providing projections for the S&P 500, with a median projection of 4025. Analysts like Tom Lee and Michael Kantowitz offer varying projections, highlighting different probabilities for market outcomes. The discussion includes potential risks and the likelihood of the S&P 500 revisiting lower levels before rising above 4200.

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5 questions

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1.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

What was the initial consensus of the elves on the Dow's outlook?

Highly bullish +7

Bearish -3

Ultra bullish +6

Neutral

2.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

Who are the new 'elves' in the updated version?

Market traders

Real people and analysts

Technical analysts

Financial journalists

3.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

What is the median projection for the S&P 500 by the new elves?

4750

3600

4025

3225

4.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

What probability does Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist assign to a recession?

60%

20%

35%

50%

5.

MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION

30 sec • 1 pt

What is a potential downside risk for the S&P 500 according to the discussion?

Revisiting 3613-3700

Staying above 4200

Dropping below 3000

Reaching 5000