Fed's Bullard: Wall Street Overbetting on Recession Odds

The speaker discusses the likelihood of a recession by the end of the year, suggesting that while there is always some risk, the probability is overstated by Wall Street. The US economy is expected to experience slow growth for the rest of the year and into 2024, with recent economic performance being stronger than anticipated. The growth rate for the second quarter is projected at 2.9%, leading to an overall 2% growth for the year, which aligns with the trend growth rate. A recession could occur due to an unforeseen shock, but current indicators do not suggest a high probability.

What is the speaker's base case for the US economy by the end of the year?

• Economic stagnation

• A significant recession

• Slow economic growth

• Rapid economic growth

How does the speaker view the recession probabilities for the US economy?

• Irrelevant

• Overstated

• Understated

• Accurately stated

What was the growth rate for the US economy in the second quarter according to the speaker?

• 1.5%

• 2.9%

• 3.5%

• 4.0%

What does the speaker suggest is necessary for a recession to occur?

• A predictable economic trend

• A gradual decline in growth

• A sudden and unpredictable shock

• A consistent increase in inflation

What is the speaker's opinion on Wall Street's recession predictions?

• They are too conservative

• They are too optimistic

• They are overestimated

• They are underestimated