China Growth Target Hangs in Balance

Economist Changshu discusses market growth projections, noting a central projection above 5% and a GDP tracker indicating 5.3% growth in the third quarter. The probability of undershooting 5% has decreased. The property market is identified as a major risk, with weak sentiments and structural shifts affecting the economy. Despite strong summer tourism, other sectors like exports are not performing well. Long-term forecasts have been downgraded to 4.1% due to demographic issues, property drag, and geopolitical risks.

What role does the property market play in the current economic situation?

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What long-term forecast was updated, and what is the new projection for growth?

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