Pimco Isn't Predicting U.S. Recession Amid Elevated Risks, Fixed-Income CIO Balls Says

The transcript discusses the potential impact of a US recession on bond yields, noting that while a recession is not currently predicted, it could lead to a significant drop in yields. The possibility of negative interest rates in the US is considered unlikely, despite European trends. The conversation shifts to the deflation trade, contrasting it with the previous reflation trade, and examines inflation expectations in the US and Europe. The discussion concludes with an analysis of recession risks, particularly in light of US-China trade tensions and upcoming tariff increases.

What impact could a US recession have on the 10-year yield?

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What are the potential implications of a serious recession on global yields?

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Discuss the significance of the deflation trade in the current economic context.

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How do the current inflation expectations in the US compare to those in Europe?

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What factors contribute to the elevated risk of recession mentioned in the text?

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