Viewing the French Election as a Potential Black Swan

The video discusses market concerns surrounding the French elections, highlighting the potential for it to be a Black Swan event due to its significant impact despite being improbable. Comparisons are made with the Trump and Brexit elections, noting differences in polling data. The volatility and uncertainty in polling are emphasized, with investors showing nervousness about French assets. Despite low general volatility, protection strategies are relatively cheap, and shifts in options and FX markets are observed.

What are the implications of the French presidential election being described as a 'genuine Black Swan event'?

What factors contribute to the complexity of the voting system in the French elections?

How does the volatility in polling affect investor confidence regarding French assets?

In what ways are investors reacting to the political risk associated with the French elections?

What observations can be made about the current state of volatility in the market despite the uncertainty surrounding the elections?