Tariffs Risk 'Recession-Like Levels' on Indicators, JPM's Normand Says

The video discusses client concerns at JP Morgan regarding global economic instabilities due to trade news. It highlights the left tail risk in the macro economy, indicating potential recession-like levels in key indicators affected by tariffs. The discussion extends to market risks, particularly in equities, which are not pricing in risk premiums despite being slightly off their highs. The video concludes with scenarios of prolonged trade wars and the impact of tariffs on all Chinese goods.

What is a key indicator mentioned that could show recession-like levels due to tariffs?

• Unemployment rate

• Interest rates

• Consumer spending

• Global manufacturing

What is the potential drop in equities discussed as a left tail risk?

• 20%

• 5%

• 10%

• 15%

What is the current percentage off the highs for equities, according to the discussion?

• 5-6%

• 3-4%

• 1-2%

• 7-8%

What is the extreme scenario mentioned regarding tariffs?

• Tariffs on all European goods

• Tariffs on all Chinese goods

• Tariffs on all South American goods

• Tariffs on all African goods

What is not being priced into equities according to the discussion?

• Inflation rates

• Risk premium

• Currency fluctuations

• Interest rate hikes