Can ISM Contraction Impede the Fed's Rate Path?

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike timing, focusing on the December meeting as the likely scenario. It examines the impact of manufacturing data and unemployment figures on market expectations and Fed decisions. The analysis includes the correlation between Fed Fund futures and S&P Futures, highlighting the importance of not surprising the market. The discussion also covers Treasurys and yields, with a strategy for positioning in September, emphasizing a flatner on the curve by shorting the two-year sector and going long on the ten-year sector.

What is the base case for the Fed's rate hike as mentioned in the text?

How does the manufacturing data impact the broader economic picture according to the speaker?

What is the significance of the unemployment number mentioned in the text?

What correlation is observed between Fed Fund futures and S&P Futures?

What is the speaker's position regarding the front end of the market going into September?