HSBC's Logan: Risk of Post-Fiscal U.S. Recession in 2019

The transcript discusses the potential impact of fiscal stimulus under President Trump, focusing on tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and their effects on US GDP growth. It examines wage and benefit growth in the context of a tightening labor market and low unemployment. The discussion also covers the administration's stance on the dollar's strength and capital flows, with references to Brexit and Mnuchin's comments. Finally, it addresses concerns about the sustainability of GDP growth and the risk of recession by 2019, considering fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve policies.

What factors are mentioned that could lead to faster growth in aggregate demand?

How does the speaker assess the potential for President Trump to boost wages and benefits for the average American?

What is the significance of the comments made by Mr. Mnuchin regarding the dollar?

What concerns are raised about the sustainability of GDP growth under President Trump?

What historical example is given to illustrate the potential fading of fiscal stimulus effects?