Goldman Doesn’t See a Significant Economic Impact From Tariffs

The video discusses the current state of the global economy, which remains in the expansion phase of the business cycle, albeit moving towards its latter stages. It examines the potential impact of trade tariffs on global GDP, estimating a minor effect of 0.1 to 0.2%. In contrast, the US fiscal package is expected to add 0.7% to GDP. While acknowledging risks of escalation and confidence impacts, the speaker does not foresee significant changes in policy or portfolios as a result of these factors.

What phase of the business cycle is the global economy currently in according to the speaker?

How might trade tariffs impact global GDP as discussed in the text?

What is the expected contribution of the fiscal package in the US to GDP this year?

What risks does the speaker mention regarding the escalation of trade tariffs?

What is the speaker's overall view on the impact of the discussed tariffs on policy changes in portfolios?