U.S. Risks Recession From Trade Policy Negatives: Deutsche Bank's Hooper

The transcript discusses the current economic dynamics between the service and goods sectors, highlighting a potential tipping point in the manufacturing sector. It examines the significant drop in export orders as a leading economic indicator and the risk of economic issues spreading from the goods to the service sector. The discussion also covers the impact on aggregate hours and consumer perceptions, with concerns about a potential recession if negative trade policies persist.

What are the current indicators suggesting about the manufacturing sector?

How is the decline in export orders affecting the broader economy?

What concerns are raised regarding aggregate hours in the employment report?

What does the recent Michigan survey indicate about consumer sentiment?

What risks does the speaker associate with the current trade policy?