CLEAN : Borussia Dortmund paired with Real

The speaker discusses their preference not to play against the German team in European football, mentioning their experience with Real Madrid. They highlight that in semifinals, the chances of reaching the final are equal, regardless of the opponent. The speaker concludes that the specific team matchup does not significantly impact the outcome.

According to the speaker, what are the chances of going to the final in a semifinal?

What does the speaker mean by saying 'it makes no big difference'?